December 2009 saw the demise of Editor & Publisher Magazine, which had been around since 1854. It lays claim to being the chief chronicler of the American newspaper industry and has presided over the business for 125 years and is a clear signal that an era is rapidly drawing to a close.

NEWSPAPERS

Daily newspapers have been losing between 2% and 5% per year of their circulation base during the last 10 years. In 1940 there were 1,878 newspapers in the U.S. with a total circulation of 32.4 million. While the number of newspapers continued to decline — 1,611 in 1990 — their circulation increased: 62.6 million in 1990. But by 2008 the number of newspapers had dropped again by a little over 200 to 1,408 while circulation crashed down to 49.2 million. In the first half of 2009 alone another 105 newspapers closed their doors — 10,000 jobs were lost. Even among the leader board 23 of the top 25 newspapers suffered between 7% and 20% declines in circulation this year (the worst slump since the Depression), and advertising revenue could be down as much as a 30% for 2009 when all the data is finalized. One of the most critical statistics revealed that only 27% of Gen Y read a newspaper, compared with 55% of the Silent or Greatest Generation. And as the consumers change so do their preferences so other print related industries as well.

MAGAZINES

There are no reliable industry-wide magazine ad revenue numbers that are publicly reported (for obvious reasons), but according to a report compiled by The Magazine Publishers of America's Publishers Information Bureau, automotive ads for the first six months of 2009 were down 21.3% and technology down 17.5%.

MAIL

The number of pieces of first class mail has steadily decreased and according to CEO Pat Donahoe, the USPS estimates a decline of 10 billion pieces in each of the next two years, dropping from a high of 213 billion pieces in 2006 to 170 billion in 2010. They are trying to cut costs in all areas to stop the bleeding: asking Congress to authorize reducing mail delivery to five days a week (approval unlikely), offering buyouts to 30,000 workers in 2010 to save $500 million and reducing the number of collection boxes across the country, of which in the past 20 years over 200,000 have vanished, more than the 175,000 that still remain.

SPAM

But it’s not just first class mail that is migrating to the Internet. The junk mail business is moving in that direction as well. Today there are 100 billion pieces of junk mail sent in the U.S. every year and 44% of it is discarded, unopened. Consumers respond to only 2% of all the junk mail sent and as a result one of the biggest producers of junk mail — the banking industry — has made getting out of the mail a high priority. Meanwhile it is estimated that 200 billion spam emails are sent every day.

DIRECT MAIL

Revenue from direct mail is also expected to fall from $48.7 billion in 2008 to $29.8 billion in 2013 — a decline of 39% — dropping it from the #1 ad revenue generator to #4, behind the Internet, broadcast TV and newspapers. In a mid-2009 study, Anthea Stratigos, CEO of Outsell, Inc., a media research and advisory outlet, predicted that $65 billion would be siphoned away from traditional advertising channels in 2009 and be spent on companies' own websites and Internet marketing.

THE SHIFT

According to Pew Research, fewer than half of Americans (43%) say that if their local newspaper closed it would hurt their community “a lot,” and even fewer (33%) say they would personally miss reading the paper. Over 68% indicated that they get their news from local television or television websites, 48% from print, 34% from radio and 31% from the Internet.

INTERNET

Ninety trillion emails were sent in 2009 – that’s 247 billion per day. Twitter send 27 million tweets per day, You Tube serves up one billion videos per day and Facebook enjoys 260 billion page views per month. No wonder the Internet is redefining every industry, including real estate brokerage. Real estate professionals have to redefine what they do and how they do; where they find their customer and how they stay in contact with them. Many progressive Realtors® have and continue to adapt every day uncovering new ways to use the Internet in their profession. However hundreds of thousands if Realtors® still remain stuck in a paradigm that is dead. The jury is still out on how many will survive and how many will retire over the course of the next few years.

READ ALL ABOUT IT

The changing arena of real estate marketing is but one of the key trends detailed by Stefan Swanepoel in the 2010 edition of his Swanepoel Trends Report. The 172-page annual report was published in February and is a must read for all Realtors® and real estate professionals.

Every year as part of the new edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report also looks back at the passing year and the people that made deadlines. We remember and salute them for their contribution during 2009. 

Here are the Newsmakers of 2009:

# 10 John Bearden

As one of the most beloved executives of a national franchise, John’s sudden departure this year as President of GMAC Real Estate — shortly after the sale of the company to Canada-based Brookfield Residential Property Services — came somewhat as a surprise. Not because he has cited health reasons, but because his departure was rumored to be unpleasant. This after he had been largely responsible for salvaging the sinking franchise during difficult times when former parent General Motors Acceptance Corporation was less than excited about their subsidiary and much more concerned about their own mortgage woes. John, you did an outstanding job under difficult circumstances and we have no doubt that you will once again serve the industry in another important capacity. We salute you.

#9 Marc Davison and Brian Boero

Outside the box — way outside the box. If ever there was an “odd couple” in real estate these two are it. But just like Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau these two are top notch in what they do and have created an exciting and dynamic consulting and speaking practice. Marc has an extensive career in advertising with companies like Young and Rubicam while Brian served for many years as President of Inman News. They both worked together at a company they owned called VREO, Inc. before joining forces again to create 1000WattConsulting. Today they are contributing to the re-engineering of the real estate industry through their consulting engagements.

#8 Kevin Levent

Metro Brokers was started with one office and a handful of sales associates in 1979 and by 2009 it was the world's largest GMAC Real Estate franchise. Under the leadership of Kevin Levent, who became President and CEO in 1996, the company has grown to nearly 2,000 sales associates. It is, however, its departure as a franchise from GMAC under a legal cloud of disagreement and the move across in December 2009 to the newly re-launched and still relatively small national franchise Better Homes & Gardens, that makes Kevin one of the top 10 Newsmakers of the Year.

#7 Harley E. Rouda, Jr.

Many where surprised when we listed Harley and his wife Kaira as top 10 Newsmakers for the year 2007, but it had then and has now again proven to be accurate. Since then this couple has skillfully positioned and branded their regional real estate company — Real Living — to be the ideal acquisition company. In October 2009 that is exactly what happened when Canada-based Brookfield Residential Property Services acquired Real Living, converted its GMAC franchise to the Real Living brand and appointed Harley as the new President of the franchise division, which is estimated to have approximately 10,000 agents in the U.S. as a result of the merger and conversion.

#6 Sherry Chris

She may not be CEO of one of the country’s largest real estate franchises (yet), but Sherry is unquestionably the most visible one in the media. She is extremely active in the Social Media world of Facebook and Twitter and in attendance at an astounding number of real estate conventions and events. After skillfully climbing the ladder from Royal LePage to Real Living, to Prudential California and then to Coldwell Banker her accession as CEO of the relatively new re-launched Better Homes & Gardens franchise is nothing short of amazing.

#5 David Stevens

In late September 2009 the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced that it had hired David Stevens, a former executive with Wells Fargo, Freddie Mac and Long & Foster as its first Chief Risk Officer. The FHA has not seen a technology upgrade or any staff increases in a decade and the appointment of a Chief Risk Officer is the first in its 74-year history. David has already taken steps to shore up the agency’s credit position. The future is promising.

#4 Dale Ross & Marty

Frame Dale and Marty are the two drivers that, over an 11 month period, cobbled together the highest profile merger of the year, one in which the National Association of Realtors® acquired ownership to a copy of the source code of Cyberhomes. This merger, together with a long-term agreement with LPS to provide extensive tax data, hosting and data aggregation services, makes it possible to form the core of RPR, The Realtor® Property Resource, a key part of the NAR’s Second Century Initiatives.

#3 Andy Kaufmann

Andy Kaufman, a Keller Williams agent in Berkeley, California and a regular AgentGenius.com writer, is credited for founding RE BarCamp. Started in August 2008 to coincide with Inman Connect, RE BarCamp events have exploded in popularity. This “un-convention” is an ad-hoc gathering of people (real estate professionals from different facets of the business) to share and learn in an open environment. It is a dynamic and intense event with discussions, demonstrations and interaction between the attendees. In 2009 RE BarCamps were held in 20 major cities across the country with one held in San Diego just before the NAR 2009 Convention, that pulled in over 500 participants.

#2 Richard A. Smith

Richard is best known as the president and chief executive officer of Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services and the parent company for real estate franchise brands such as Coldwell Banker, Century 21, ERA Real Estate, Sotheby’s International Real Estate and Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate. However, in 2009 it was not well known that Richard tirelessly campaigned and lobbied in Washington to get the first-time homebuyer's tax credit extended to April 2010. It was an extension that also included a $6,500 credit for qualified repeat homebuyers. Well done Richard, the industry thanks you for a job well done.

#1 Dale Stinton

Just three years into office and Dale has pulled the trigger to move forward on more bold and innovative projects than have been initiated in the previous 10 years combined. Many of his Second Century Initiatives were launched in 2009 and several are so large that they could individually have a significant and long-term impact on the entire residential real estate brokerage industry. The Realtors® Federal Credit Union started its first full year in operation and the Realtors® Property Resource, together with HouseLogic, was announced days before the annual National Association of Realtors® Convention in November. These are huge steps for the NAR and the industry.

ABOUT THE REPORT
To reserve you advance copy of the 2010 Swanepoel TRENDS Report at the special pre-publication price visit www.RealEstateBooks.org today. This Report is widely regarded as the leading annual Report detailing the most important business, profitability and technology trends impacting the real estate industry. All orders placed before January 15th will be shipped on February 8th.

Every year as part of the new edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report the 160 page Report also looks back at the passing year and lists those events that transpired during the year that made headlines and captured the industry’s attention and imagination. The 2010 edition is due for release on February 8, 2010.

Here are the top events that during 2009 made headlines in the residential real estate brokerage industry.

#10 Houston Becomes #1 REALTOR® Association

In August 2009 the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR) officially became the largest local Realtor® board in the United States following a recent rise in membership and a decline in membership at the Long Island (New York) Board of Realtors® (LIBOR). HAR, with a membership of 23,354 surpassed its long standing rival for the top slot by 118.These two have long been the largest local associations by far, with the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors® holding the third spot with nearly 10,000 fewer members. Congratulations to Bob Hale and his team.

#9 Metro Brokers Switches Franchise Brands

With 2,000 sales associates the brand switch Metro Brokers made in December 2009 from GMAC to Better Homes & Gardens recorded the largest move of one brokerage company from one franchise brand to another. The departure away from the #1 GMAC franchise in the world to become the #1 BH&G franchise in the world was a major move and strongly refutes the high value many franchises have attached to their brands. Many observe this move as the beginning of more swaps to come as franchisees increasingly look for more than just a name. They want visionary leadership, quality training, technology, Internet and social media savvy solutions and, above all, a dependable partner.

#8 RE BarCamp Sets Event Benchmark

RE BarCamp is an ad-hoc gathering of people (real estate professionals from different facets of the business) that share and learn in an open environment. It is widely referred to as an “unconvention” with no pre-determined programs or invited guest speakers delivering PowerPoint presentations from a stage. Rather the structure follows a round table of open discussion concerning topics sourced from the registrants and as a result of interaction between attendees. It may only have started in August 2008 but in 2009 it exploded to over 20 major cities across the country and is currently one of “the happening” events in real estate.

#7 RVM’s & AVM’s Become Strategic

AVM (Automated Valuation Model) is the term widely used to describe providing property valuation by using a mathematical algorithm based on the data. In real estate AVMs calculate the value of a specific property by analyzing the value of comparable properties sold and registered. The newly announced RVM (Realtor® Valuation Model) follows the same mathematical analysis but hopes to aggregate the information available from 700+ MLS' (Multiple Listing Service) across the country. The NAR, the driver behind the RVM, hopes that this model will become the default valuation method for all financial institutions nationwide. If achieved, this will be a major industry game changer.

#6 Realtor® Credit Union Celebrates First Year of Operation

Exactly one year ago at the 2008 Realtors® Conference & Expo in Orlando the NAR announced that it had received regulatory approval and a charter for Realtors® Federal Credit Union (RFCU). The Rockville, Maryland-based Credit Union works in partnership with the NAR as a Realtor® Benefits Program Partner, but it operates totally separate from the NAR with its own board of directors and management team. Now, one year later, RFCU has 3,000 members, $25 million in assets, $16 million in deposits and $8 million in loans, making it larger than 60% of all credit unions today; impressive. With a stated goal of being in the top 5% of all credit unions within 5 years the RFCU is definitely a sleeping giant.

#5 Keller Williams Climbs to Third Largest Real Estate Franchise

In March Keller Williams Realty Inc. announced at its 2009 annual convention that it had moved ahead of RE/MAX International to now claim the third-largest real estate franchise in the U.S with 72,794 associates at the end of 2008. This was according to a study by Steve Murray of REAL Trends. According to Keller Williams the growth gained momentum during the last three years of the down turn where it outpaced most other real estate franchises that had lost agents. During the period from 2006 to 2008 KW increased its associate count by an astonishing 52%. Watch out Century 21 and Coldwell Banker. You have someone coming up fast in your rear view mirror.

#4 Short Sales & Foreclosures Maintain High Visibility

After increasing more than 30% per year for the last four years, some estimate that foreclosures will drop to about 1.75 million in 2010/11. The Treasury Department continues to place pressure on mortgage lenders to make trial loan modifications permanent. Furthermore in December the Treasury set long-awaited guidelines designed to simplify and speed up the short sale process through its Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program. Until now the short sale process has been cumbersome for all involved; taking as long as eight to ten months to get a transaction to close. The program goes into effect April 5, 2010.

#3 Brookfield RPS Acquires a Great Solution

Announcing their second largest acquisition in November 2009 Brookfield RPS became the owner of Real Living Network Services. Combining all the residential real estate brokerage companies Brookfield now owns in Canada and the U.S., they are one of North America’s Top 10 leading residential real estate franchises with more than $20 billion in annual home sales and an estimated 30,000 agents. The reason the Ohio-based Real Living acquisition is such a great solution for Brookfield is that the GMAC franchise they acquired last year was lacking momentum, a CEO and contractually had to replace the name. This acquisition provided them a solution for all three challenges with very little duplication.

#2 RPR Becomes the NAR Convention Buzz

Squeezing in a botched (who was invited and who wasn’t) and a confusing (intermingling a B2B and B2C initiative) talking head video press announcement a week before the NAR convention was surprising. However, the timing was great as the buzz propelled the Realtors® Property Resource (RPR) into the most discussed and debated topic at the convention. Billed as the largest single source of real estate information in the world and the “ultimate” member benefit it is also ridiculed as a threat to MLS' across the country. One thing is certain, it is the most significant project undertaken by the NAR in years.

#1 Extended Tax Credit Helps Boost Housing Market

In the hopes of sustaining the real estate market's recent momentum, President Obama signed the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 in November, extending the FTHBC until April 2010. The legislation includes language that significantly expands the popular first-time homebuyer tax credit to more than two-thirds of current homeowners and nearly all first-time buyers. This, in its own, will not save the housing market but it sparked a rush to buy homes before the extension was approved in November. This resulted in an increase of 7.4% over October for a record 545,000 housing units sold. With rising unemployment and a sluggish economic recovery, let's hope that the incentive created by the Tax Credit carries the housing market through to the summer of 2010.

To reserve you advance copy of the 2010 Swanepoel TRENDS Report at the special pre-publication price visit www.RealEstateBooks.org today. This Report is widely regarded as the leading annual Report detailing the most important business, profitability and technology trends impacting the real estate industry.

Detailed results have been posted at http://bit.ly/REarticles

Six months ago I wrote a blog post about The Changing Face of Real Estate Franchise Brands that garnished a lot of attention because I dared to compare and even more list in order the top 10 franchise brands in my opinion.

Then last month my blog post Merge Creates One of the Largest Real Estate Franchises in Northern America exploded with over 155 comments as the debate continued about brands when a significant number of agents had never even heard of the brands mentioned.

Well now I have created an opportunity to see what the industry really thinks.

Starting today and until midnight on Friday, December 11th, everyone has the opportunity to grade the top 35 real estate franchise brands on a scale on 0 – 5; starting from “Never heard of the brand” all the way up to “Excellent brand.”

Base your vote on your experience of the brands visibility, awareness and impact in your local market.

There have been various studies reporting who is the largest, has the most agents, does the most transactions, etc. Now we will determine the Top 10 real estate franchises as voted by the industry itself.

GO TO THE VOTING PAGE ON RETRENDS HERE

Please help get the word out to as many agents as we can so that we can have a fair and representative vote. Many thanks. Results will be announced on December 15th and full details published in the 2010 Swanepoel TRENDS Report due February 2010.

Feel free to leave a comment below on who you think is the #1 franchise brand in your area after you have voted.

Barely a year ago the real estate industry was stunned when Canadian-based Brookfield Residential Property Services (Brookfield RPS), a division of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (Brookfield), and owner of Royal LePage, the largest Canadian residential real estate company, acquired GMAC Real Estate. With the departure of CEO John Bearden and a pending name change imminent, many labeled the GMAC franchise as yesterday’s news.

What a difference a year has made.

Announcing their second large acquisition today, Brookfield RPS has now also the owner of Real Living Network Services, a subsidiary of Real Living Inc. Combining the two companies creates one of America’s leading residential real estate franchises with more than $20 billion in annual home sales and an estimated 30,000 agents.

Although that in its own is huge news (and the largest real estate brokerage acquisition of the year) it is the merging of the two and the rebranding of the whole as Real Living that is electrifying. The reason is that Ohio-based Real Living is a national award-winning real estate brand known for its innovation, customer service and a culture of partnership and collaboration within its network. Last year I even named Real Living as the “Most Promising New National Brand” in my Swanepoel TRENDS Report while Entrepreneur Magazine listed them as one of the Top 50 New Franchises.

Exciting times for newly appointed President Harley E. Rouda, Jr.

What are your thoughts about this "new " move. Has yesterday’s news turned into tomorrow’s future?

Managing the diverse and expanding facets of Social Media can be compared to managing all the components of an orchestra. In the same way that an orchestra consists of different parts — percussion instruments, keyboard, strings, brass, etc. — so Social Media consists of different parts; Blogging, Microblogging, Networks, Wikis etc.

In both cases the musical instruments or the different components of Social Media can all work autonomously; and successfully so. However, the full sound, power and impact of an orchestra only occurs when the conductor enables all the members of the orchestra to play together in harmony. The same principle applies to Social Media.

Tying it All Together

To coordinate all the members to each play their instrument at the right time requires a conductor that uses a music score (a plan) to show him when each instrument should be played.

In that same way view yourself as the conductor of your own Social Media Orchestra. It’s not vital that you activate or participate in every section and there is no reason that you can’t start one section at a time. There is no right or wrong here, neither is there a deadline or time frame. This example of a Social Media Orchestra is to illustrate the fact that you are in control of your own participation and that it can be done piecemeal and on your own timeline.

However, similar to the music conductor you must use your Social Media sites (think instruments) harmoniously and with a specific plan (think song/tune) in mind. If you don’t, your result will create a less attractive result (think noise).

To help understand the Social Media Orchestra the new Swanepoel Social Media Report (2010) published last week week divides social media activities into three primary sections and nine secondary components. For more details on managing your own Social Media Orchestra review chapter six in the 2010 edition of the Swanepoel SOCIAL MEDIA Report.

Here are a few “Rules of Engagement” that will help you navigate more efficiently:

Give More Than You Take

Respect

Listen

Respond

Build Relationships

Be Authentic and Transparent

Do Not Become a Nuisance

Collaborate

Add Value

Consider Opportunities in the Long Tail

These are extracts from the new Swanepoel SOCIAL MEDIA Report 2010 written by Stefan Swanepoel (author of 15 books including the annual Swanepoel TRENDS Report) and Mel Aclaro founder of MindBridj.com, a company servicing web video solutions for speakers, trainers and coaches. This Report is due for publication on October 12th and can be ordered at the RealSure Online Bookstore.

Many agents often ask me at seminars where do they start with Twitter?

How do they make contact with great people on real estate?

Who can they learn from? Etc. etc.

Well to make it easy I have compiled a list of 200 Interesting and Influential People on Twitter. I have made it so easy that you can view all their profiles on two pages and with two clicks follow all of them.

I am following all of them, I suggest you do to:

List #1

List #2

SOCIAL MEDIA SNIPPET:

Guess who the Top 10 Government Agencies on Twitter are?

See answer here.

I only got 4 right? How did you do?

Of course they are, every day.

Here are some of the online media you should be monitoring regularly:

So what should you be tracking?

So, are you in on the discussion?

Be yourself, be open, be transparent, share… and all those other good things. Just decide who you are, what image you wish to portray today, and tomorrow.

Don’t just sign up for a network account on LinkedIn or Facebook or Twitter with the intent of just engaging in idle chit-chat without taking the time to complete profile and think through your positioning.

Here are some steps to get you going:

Positioning Yourself (Finding Your Spot)

• Are you someone who is using Social Media for personal or professional use? • If you’re using Social Media for professional use, what information are you presenting? • Are you an individual that offers quotes or frivolous information or do you provide real and relevant content? • Do you respond to people or ignore people? • Who are you connecting with? • What do you want your online experience to be like? • How do others view you? It’s important that you know what your motivation is for joining (business, social, networking, etc.) and whether you will want to create a professional or a personal profile.

Take Away

Building a Brand (Adding Value to Your Spot)

Take Away

Conveying Authenticity (Ensuring Your Spot is Sincere)

Take Away

Create a Following (Making Your Spot Popular)

Take Away

Creating a Sales Pipeline (Making Your Spot Count)

Take Away

Synopsis

These are extracts from the new soon to be published 120page Swanepoel SOCIAL MEDIA Report 2010 especially for Real Estate Professionals. Copies ordered now at RealSure Online Bookstore will be shipped on October 5th.

Great presentation from one of the masters of social media. Thanks for the trial blazing Jeff.

Business & Social Media & Networks have exploded the last 5 years. So much so that I have been asked by hundreds of brokers and agents when am I going to write about it more and provide suggestions, tips and strategies on how to master this growing "monster."

The good news is that I am busy writing as we speak and will be announcing in August details about my new Swanepoel SOCIAL MEDIA Report - A Field Guide for Real Estate Professionals.

Meanwhile it's important to be connected, get connected and to build your network. This survey should prove interesting and hopefully inspire many more real estate professionals to become more active in social and business networks.

Submit your name and lets get a snapshot every year of what it means to be one of the 100 most connected in real estate.

There is always a debate going on in the real estate industry about which company is the largest. As some don't disclose financials and others use different measuring criteria (offices, agents, sales volume, profitability, brand recognition, etc.) we have many potential "winners".

This article is however not about who is #1 or #2 but rather what has happened to real estate franchise brands over the course of the last 20 years, and does that information in any way provide us with a trend line that may afford likely scenario's going forward.

To start off, we need to look at the most prominent brands 20 years ago; 1989. I revisited many "old" publications of those years, the REAL Trends Report and the leading Real Estate Report of the time; the Roulac Report by Deloitte, Haskins and  Sells (1988). Combining all that intel I have compiled a list of what were, in probable order, the most likely candidates for the most prominent Residential Real Estate Franchise brand of 1989.

1. Century 21
2. Coldwell Banker
3. ERA
4. RE/MAX
5. Realty World
6. Merrill Lynch
7. Red Carpet
8. Help-U-Sell
9. Gallery of Homes
10. Better Homes and Gardens

I have followed the same criteria and researched the REAL Trends Report again and the leading Real Estate Report of today, my Swanepoel TRENDS Report. The most likely candidates for the most prominent Residential Real Estate Franchise brands of 2009 are:

1. RE/MAX
2. Coldwell Banker
3. Century 21
4. Keller Williams Realty
5. Prudential Real Estate
6. ERA
7. Realty Executives
8. Sotheby's International Realty
9. GMAC Real Estate
10. EXIT Realty

Analysis:

So here is where the interesting part comes in. Although not based on any scientific hard facts, the following has occurred during the past 20 years:

• 40% have remained a Top 10 national real estate brand (C21, CB, ERA & RE/MAX).
• 20% exchanged their brand for a new brand and were still able to hold on; remaining a Top 10 brand (Merrill Lynch became Prudential and BH&G became GMAC Real Estate).
• 10% dropped off the Top 10 list but still operate as a national franchise (Realty World).
• 30% fell on even more difficult times and went through different types of trouble including bankruptcy. (Gallery of Homes, Help-U-Sell and Red Carpet). It is interesting that one  or two of the brands are staging a comeback.
• 10% of the brands on the 2009 list had improved their rankings (Realty Executives).
• 30% of the brands on the 2009 list were not even in real estate franchising back in 1989 (Keller Williams Realty, Sotheby's International Realty and EXIT Realty).

Probing Questions:

There are of course many different deductions that can be made using above information resulting in hours of interesting discussion. Due to the brevity of this article I am going to list just five observations that I think are worth consideration:

1. Will the three brands that have dominated for the past 20+ years maintain their stronghold; RE/MAX, Coldwell Banker and Century 21?
2. Will newcomer Keller Williams Realty that surged into the top 5 be able to continue its rise and unseat one of the top 3 established brands? If yes, who will be the one to loose its top 3 ranking?
3. Twenty year plus top 5 brand ERA has for the first time dropped out of the top 5. Is this a sign that they will continue a downward slide; ultimately out of the top 10?
4. Brand changers (Merrill Lynch became Prudential and BH&G became GMAC Real Estate) have shown that brands are not always that important as both survived and held on to similar top 10 rankings in 20 years. GMAC is however scheduled for another name change within the next year. Will they still be able to hold on to their top 10 ranking after a second name change?
5. Will companies such as Realty World, Red Carpet and Help-U-Sell that dropped off the top 10 and are staging a comeback be able to regain their former top 10 status? 

Closing comments:  

There and numerous new franchise brands bubbling under the radar such as Weichert Realty, Assist-to-Sell, ZipRealty and even Better Homes & Gardens (not same company as before but the same brand) that could very well be a top 10 real estate brand within the next five years.

Although this exercise was more one of fun rather than trying to predict the future, it does show us that even in the "big picture" of large national brands the world is ever changing and that anything can happen.

Love to hear your thoughts on the value of real estate brands for a brokerage and/or agent.

As always you can also follow me on www.Twitter.com/Swanepoel and www.Facebook.com/Swanepoel

Most of the leading Social Media sites such as MySpace and Twitter have been offering customized and/or vanity URLs for their profiles for quite some time; the world's largest social-network, Facebook has not.

This all changed late Friday and early Saturday, June 12^th and 13^th, when Facebook allowed its 200 million users the chance to claim a personalized Web address on a first-come, first-served basis.

Within three minutes 300,000 users had grabbed a name.  Fifteen minutes later that number rose to 500,000 and to more than 3 million within the first few hours, making this the largest online digital rush ever in the history of the Internet.

What does this mean? Facebook previously assigned users a numerical ID number. For example let me illustrate it with my own page.  My Facebook page was www.facebook.com/people/Stefan-Swanepoel/773410101 - I had no choice in the selection of the URL for my profile page. It was whatever Facebook had allocated me. Now after obtaining the URL of my choice it is now www.facebook.com/swanepoel - much simpler, easier to remember and matches my other accounts; i.e. www.twitter.com/swanepoel

Excitement for millions and disappointment for millions of others who did not get the URL they had hoped for. Facebook has aggressively tried to minimize "cybersquatting" of user names by only letting accounts that were created prior to the date of their announcement be eligible for the permanent names. They also reserved certain names to protect trademarks, intellectual property and other rights. Furthermore, Facebook is also enforcing a strict 'no transferability' policy," thereby further restricting the misuse of these names.

However you look or feel about this step, it is widely acknowledged as a hugely positive step towards making Facebook profiles a more personal experience easily shareable.  Furthermore it strengthens Facebook as the world's dominant online community.

If you have yet customized your Facebook URL you can do so by going to http://www.facebook.com/username/

Let me know what URL you were able to get?

Following the crash of the initial dotcom bubble in 2001 many people claimed to have created or coined the phrase Wed 2.0 as we in subsequent years the industry grappled with what would come next. By 2004 the term Web 2.0 was appearing everywhere and euphoria reined with this next phase of the Internet that included all sorts of "second generation" web developments. Information sharing became hot as did collaboration, hosted services, blogging, wikis, video-sharing and of course social-media sites.

In 2003 MySpace grabbed our imagination, followed in 2004 by Facebook and in 2005 by YouTube.  They quickly emerged as the dominate players in this new social media environment. However, this new Olympic team was still missing a player or two.

Although micro-blogging and social media site Twitter only entered the trials late in 2006, it is having an even more fundamental shift than any of its predecessors. Twitter is basically a SMS (Short Messaging Service) sent to followers that have subscribed to receive them with its messages (Tweets) limited to 140 characters.

It was initially perceived as a Gen X toy, but Twitter has transcended that expectation, which many Web 2.0 technologies have not been able to do.  It has become a very significant communication tool of the first decade of the 21st century. It may sound premature and even absurd to some, but there are those that are already comparing its influence to that of Morse code, the telephone, radio or television.

In barely three years the estimated number of users (no official numbers are released) is around 12 million. Compete.com ranks it as the third most used social network behind Facebook and MySpace - which means about 6million unique visitors per month - while Nielsen.com ranks it as the fastest-growing member community site (1382% in February 2009), ahead of Facebook (228%)

The American Red Cross uses Twitter: during the 2008 Mumbai attacks, when US Airways flight 1549 went down in the Hudson River and this month when NASA astronaut Mike Massimino used it onboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis.

All indications are that Twitter is the next really "big thing."

So, Realtors^® don't get left behind. Get your free Twitter account today and start learning how to "Tweet" this week. You can find and follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/swanepoel

The recent Earth Day gave the green revolution another shot up the arm.  When Earth Day started in 1970 a large number of people (20 million people one country) had already committed to celebrate it. Since then that number has exploded to 500 million (175 countries); about 7% of the world's population.

But even prior to 2000 "building green" still remained outside mainstream awareness - but has that changed, and for many good reasons. Elevating the profile of "Green" has been added to the agenda of movie celebrities such as Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio, music stars like Radiohead and of course, political celebrities like former vice president Al Gore.

Closer to the home front, the U.S. Green Building Council has made great strides with the release of the first green building standards under its Leadership Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system for new construction, existing building operations and commercial interiors. The USGBC also created its Certified Green Professional (CGP) designation that recognizes builders, remodelers and other industry professionals who incorporate green building principles into homes without driving up the cost of construction. The National Association of REALTORS® has also validated this growing trend when they launched their new designation aptly called "Green" for Realtors®.

With buildings accounting for large amounts of land use, energy and water consumption, and air and atmosphere alteration, it's important that we start building new eco-cities. Here are some of the buzz words and concepts that are contributing to reducing the impact of building on human health and the world we live in:

• Advanced water conservation
• Greywater and wastewater-treatment techniques
• Lush planted terraces with parapets collecting rainwater for reuse
• Air-quality-enhancing garden filled atriums
• Photovoltaics
• Passive solar building design
• Heavily insulated walls, triple-glaze doors and windows
• Heat recovery ventilation systems
• Reduced surface area designs to minimize loss of heat
• Environmentally-controlled systems
• Reducing environmental degradation

So after years of doing very little and now after months of consultation with the American Institute of Architects comprehensive, new legislation is at last being introduced that is aimed at promoting energy efficiency in residential buildings. The bill would provide incentives to lenders and financial institutions to provide lower interest loans and other benefits to consumers who build, buy, or remodel their homes and businesses to improve their energy efficiency.

Living "green" isn't an one-legislation-event or an all-or-nothing proposition.  It is an evolution, a growth process, and a re-thinking of our existing patterns, habits and thoughts. Above it all we must recognize that we have a responsibility to our children to take care of the place we call earth and to preserve it for future generation.

What could/should Realtors do to help?

Housing, like any other "toxic" assets, needs to go through a cleansing process. That means down, before up.

And this is going to require liquidating the debt as we cannot continue carrying all that excessive baggage forever. The empty promises, artificially inflated numbers and ongoing uncontrolled bailouts have got to stop. We just can't save everyone that bought a house who shouldn't have. If some people were greedy, lazy or stupid - sorry - they should loose their house and not be rewarded by someone else making the payments. At the same time we are not going get housing back on track we if don't create jobs. People without work are unstable and live in uncertainty. 

Fixing the problem and coming up with a viable, effective, nationwide plan is of course difficult and I do not claim to be an economist or an expert (I track real estate business trends - that's all - for my free monthly enewsletter visit www.RETrends.com). That said let me provide my two cents on the economy:

1. As we have probably reached the lowest point in the housing market, or are within months of reaching it, we need to focus our efforts on short term incentives to regain overall optimism in real estate as a solid investment again if we hope to re-energize buyers into returning to the marketplace.

2. We need to halt foreclosures as far as reasonably possible. Banks need to allow people to extend the amortization of their home loans over a longer period of time; maybe even to 40 years if the situation dictates it. We have got to stop this negative wave that is cycling through the housing industry.

3. Government has to enhance the initial Home Buyers Tax Credit by extending it to ALL homebuyers, not just first-time home buyers. Furthermore, eliminate the recapture of the tax credit for 2008 and provide a true tax benefit across the board. 

4. I am not sure as to how we would implement this but what if all service providers involved in the transaction would provide a rebate of 20% on the fees associated with the purchase of a home for the next year. This would include title companies, mortgage companies, escrow companies, attorneys, etc., and yes, even real estate professionals.

5. Finally wouldn't it be great if we could lock mortgage rates for all home purchases at 4% for an extended period of time; 12 to 18 months? That would really be a boost.

In summary, let's get back to the solid model that worked before: 20% down, documented income, good credit and accurate valuations. Real estate has also been a great investment and on the long term will be again so there is no need for us to create unnatural bubbles. Let's not repeat what happened during the last decade.

Does this resolve all problems? Of course not, but it would certainly revitalize and restore our faith in housing and get buyers off the sideline in significant numbers.  And that's really what we need most in fixing the housing downturn - home buyers with confidence in real estate.

I am sure we each have our own opinion regarding what needs to happen. Love to hear thoughts.

"It is impossible to predict the future." That's a statement I have made hundreds of times, both from the stage as well as in print.

Yet considering the most likely scenarios and then preparing for them lessens the shock when some variation of any prediction does materialize. Being caught off guard is just foolish. Why would you fight the future? The future is coming, no matter what. And for it to arrive, time will change.

We have all heard the saying that everything changes and that nothing is certain but change itself.

A wise Realtor^® with open arms would embrace new concepts and innovations. Listen, read and test drive new technology, social media, ways to advertise, methods to reach out to the home buyers, creative ways to serve him or her better, differently and more effectively and cost efficiently.

Agreed.  But not every new business model is necessarily better than the one you have. But they can't all be bad. Whether you are a 50-50 kind of a guy or a believer of the 80-20 rule...it really doesn't make any difference.

Not responding to new scenarios is stupid.

You're not stupid...are you? Okay, so you're not. Then don't be in denial about change. The real estate business is changing. Homeowners are different. Real estate information is all on the Internet.

Read any good article, blog or report on the changing real estate industry and use this relatively slow period in the real estate cycle as an opportunity to retool.

If you are not sure where to start then read both my 2008 and 2009 Swanepoel Trends Reports. The two reports examine different important trends, strategies and concepts. These are wide-ranging studies of some 2,000 hours of research, interviews and writing. Or subscribe to my free monthly Trends Newsletter. 

I'll be the first to acknowledge that I have no crystal ball and that not everything in the reports is 100% accurate nor will be 100% in your future. But you will find no other report, more comprehensive, more complete or more focused on trying to provide real estate brokers and agents honest, objective and useable information.

I believe that real estate agents do have an important future role in the home buying transaction. Not as Sunday Open House-sitters, not as MLS Advertising Managers, not as Poorly Educated Sales Mavericks, but as true Real Estate Professionals.

And what is that?

A Real Estate Professional is a person that I can look up to. Someone who is my advisor regarding my real estate matters. He or she is a person that will wisely guide me to the right decision and not just sell me something because they earn a commission. Someone who will always negotiate the best deal for me and not try appease both parties to get the deal done. A person that will remain with me as my real estate consultant for all my future real estate and mortgage needs, whatever they may be.

Are you that real estate professional? Can you be that Mr. or Ms. Realtor^®? If so, you are one in one thousand. If not, I urge you to take action as the real estate business is going to change and will do so right around you.

So what do you think Realtors^® should do?

For a long time most international markets have felt far away, and many Americans didn't care nor were they very interested in foreign cities. Although the Web has brought us closer together as a people we still remain apart. Few products or services illustrate this better than the buying or selling of a home.

But today with air travel becoming increasingly more commonplace, immigration and living choices becoming more readily available and our own market in a recession, many smart real estate companies have turned toward international expansion as a new means of controlled growth.

At the same time many buyers in foreign countries are looking at the United States as an investment opportunity, in spite of or in some cases even as a result of our current depressed housing market.  Concurrently, fluctuation in currencies and the advantages created as a result of exchange rates have also increased business opportunities in different markets around the globe. 

While America is struggling through the current financial and economic crisis, as many other countries around the world are, several overseas economies find themselves in a stronger situation - even in some cases one of strong growth.  Growth in China, India and Russia seems to be resulting in a race to see who can supplant the United States and become the world's next economic power.

And at the heart of many strong economies lies a strong real estate market. One where people have the right to live, own and transact freely with their homes. It is that ability to search, market, buy or sell real estate that forms the focus of this trend.

Three international trends that can impact your real estate business, irrespective of where you live or practice real estate are:

1. Global and Multi Language IDX
2. Global Multi Listing Systems
3. Global Social Media Websites 

For individual Realtors^®, working the online global tools, websites, services and communities has become a key component in a comprehensive real estate strategy. Even when just serving the local market the importance of being able to translate listing data and serving customers in the language of their choosing is vital. Have buyers from foreign countries be able to find you, communicate with you and even browse your properties for sale. You never know where the next buyer may be coming from.

If you aspire to become an international player the time to start acting global is now.

This is an extract and update from my 160-page 2009 edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report.

After literally hundreds and hundreds of requests to make the annual Swanepoel TRENDS Report available in an audio format this has finally happened with the new edition of the Report.

Just released this week is the first ever CD set of the 160-page 2009 Trends Report published last month. The entire unabridged 2009 Swanepoel TRENDS Report is contained in a 5 CD set and offers over 4 hours of information. The report is read by Mel Aclaro, an instructional designer, trainer and the New Media Director at RealtyU, one the largest educational and training companies in the real estate industry.

If you want to get a crystal clear vision of what's happening in the real estate brokerage business today and the Top 10 business trends impacting the future of Realtors® then this is the fastest and easiest way for you to get up to speed.

The audio CD set can be obtained by from the RealtyU's online E-store at www.RealEstateBooks.org.  To my all friends, use the promo code Get It Now and save 20% off the regular price.

Rarely has pending legislation suggested changes to the financial services arena as controversial as the recent Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLB Act).  The proposed rule would declare real estate brokerage, real estate management, and employee relocation to be activities that are "financial in nature" or "incidental to a financial activity" under the GLB Act. This would allow financial holding companies and national bank subsidiaries to enter these businesses.

The impact on the real estate brokerage industry has escalated and this GLB Act has become one of the most highly profiled public, advertising, social media campaigns and debates on main street, the grapevine, Chicago and Capitol Hill.

Before we end with the final result, let's quickly summarized where it started.

Spurred by the 1929 market crash and in the belief that the stock market speculation by the banks led to their collapse, the 1933 Banking Act was aimed at restoring confidence in the banking system. It established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which insured customer accounts and prohibited banks from both accepting deposits and underwriting securities. In a section called the Glass-Steagall Act (GS Act), it forced the separation of commercial and investment banking.

Following World War II, banks sought ways around the restrictions by forming holding companies that in turn engaged in commercial activities. Then in 1956 the Bank Holding Company Act (BHC Act; amended in 1970) placed further restrictions on what banks could do in the insurance business and once again reinforced the division of commercial and investment banking activities.

By the mid 1990s many economists and policymakers viewed the terms of the GS Act to be largely unnecessary and in November 1999 President Clinton repealed the GS Act and introduced the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLB).

That is where the new debate started.

The act specifically allows a bank holding company or a foreign bank that qualifies as a financial holding company to engage in a broad range of activities that are defined by the GLB Act to be "financial in nature" or "incidental to a financial activity." 

The fight was on.

Fast forward to 2009 and the "bloody" almost decade long battle ended quietly last week when Congress passed an Appropriations Bill that would permanently ban the Federal Reserve Board and Treasury Department from finalizing the 2000 proposal to allow federally chartered banks into the real estate brokerage business.

NAR wins with a technical knock out in Round #8.

So what happened?

Well, the American Bankers Association, which had led the crusade and was able to get a series of some eight-one-year delays, just decided to give up. According to the Associations president, "It was no longer on our priority list." Well, with the state of the financial market no-one is surprised.

So, it's over?

Well for now, at least. Will there be another challenge or initiative in the future? Most likely. Meanwhile, also remember that this rule only applies to federally chartered banks and not state banks.

That said, this battle is over, and NAR remains the reigning champion.

A detailed 20+ page whitepaper discussing the issues titled "Real Estate Confronts the Banks" was published in 2001 by RealSure, Inc. and is available for free downloading.

Whether you own a small real estate office or a franchise with multiple offices, real estate brokers have much in common with other small business owners during these difficult economic conditions.  This economy affects all businesses and it doesn't really matter if you are the local hair salon or the major department store, current market conditions are tough. 

For real estate brokers, owners and managers the focus revolves around how to recruit quality agents, how to retain quality and productive agents and how to increase overall profitability.  This is analogous to the farmer who must plant, fertilize and water before reaping - and the sayings goes, "You reap what you sow." Sowing solid business principles is certainly a key part of reaping a profit.

Included in the Swanepoel TRENDS Report 2009 is a list of 10 suggested action steps for brokers to be successful during the down turn. Here is a synopsis:

RECRUITING

1. Define Your Hiring Objectives

Brokers must know what they want in a new hire before they can communicate the need to the marketplace.  It's no longer a numbers game but a quality contest. Creating unnecessary turnover wastes too much time and is too expensive, let alone the disruptiveness that results from bringing a team member on board who's not a good fit.

2. Benefits Has its Privileges

Announce your need to your local market and identify the top five reasons why an agent should join your company.  Don't get caught up in the compensation game as it isn't and shouldn't be the number one reason an agent joins your company.  The focus needs to be on what your company will do to expand the agent's career.

3. Being Creative

Brokers need to determine what group of agents they need to add to their team to achieve the desired results, be it Gen X or Gen Y, multilingual people, college graduates, etc. It will require the use of multiple marketing channels such as Craigslist, blogs, social networks, customer lists and other online services to expand your search - go where the agents are. 

4. Quality Control

Test for a match before spending time with the potential recruit. Do the standard reference checks but more importantly check to make sure the new recruit is compatible with your company and your team. Many different tests like a DISC assessment, the Real Estate Simulator, etc. can help.

RETENTION

5. Leadership

The number one reason agents often leave their company is a poor relationship or disagreement with management. And this almost always comes down to leadership and communication. The work environment is critical and experts are saying that people providing the service to the customers are #1.

6. In Good Hands

Most real estate agents are looking for guidance, mentoring and support to help them pilot their careers to success. Creating teams and mentors within your company helps everyone feel that they are part of something and that they belong - which creates an air of openness and sharing that will result in higher production.

7. Professional Development

Failure of the majority of agents to improve their own knowledge and skills has placed an added responsibility on the shoulders of brokers. To ensure that your company succeeds, brokers must provide agents access to extensive professional development opportunities. A good way to go is a private labeled online university.

PROFITABILITY

8. Business Plans

Study after study has shown that most businesses that fail did so because they did not have a comprehensive business plan for the company to follow.  With an inexpensive real estate industry specific business plan for agents it is easy for brokers to ensure that their agents are equipped with the necessary tools to develop a realistic business plan and accountability system. 

9. Expense Analysis

It's amazing that during the peak real estate market many brokers didn't control their expenses and failed to set aside a portion of their profits for the leaner years. Re-margining your business and bringing costs in line with income is foundational to the success of any business.  But remember, it's not a one time event.  It has to be continuously monitored and managed.

10. Systems

One efficient strategy to do more with less is to streamline activities, automate repetition and put systems into place that can handle many non-income producing tasks. Technology for real estate companies has come a long way in helping to manage clients, agents, information and transactions and increase productivity.

Copies of the 160-page 2009 edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report are now available at Amazon as well as the online real estate bookstore.

After more than 3 months of writing and many more months of research the Swanepoel TRENDS Report (2009 edition 161-pages) will be arriving from the printers next week.

Out of the housing bubble of 2006, the subprime ashes of 2007 and the mortgage meltdown of 2008 we are going to see a whole new real estate industry evolve and develop and we will look back at the years 2008 - 2012 as the transition period during which the real estate industry made a major paradigm shift to reinvent the home buying and selling process.

Paradigm shifts share one thing in common - they don't happen overnight.  They are slow to develop and they change during the process. 

There has been pressure on the real estate business to change now for more than a decade. The internet started shaping the industry in the mid 1990s while the industry was undergoing significant consolidation. The 2000-05 housing boom put a hold on this but with the downturn the industry is once again facing strong pressure to fundamentally transform the real estate business.

Just as surely as the early bird that gets the worm, if you don't start adapting in 2009 the shift will pass you by.  In fact if you haven't already started it may already be too late. Recognizing that change is happening is the first step, taking action the second and monitoring its evolution the third.  Unfortunately many have not yet recognized that change is already here.

And it's true, a lot of change is happening. For example, organized real estate at the hands of NAR may be on a new track, MLS may look and function completely differently, new non-U.S. firms may already be expanding major new brands into the U.S., social media may have found its connection with real estate professionals and a new younger generation will soon assume the leadership of the real estate industry.  A generation that is more global, more socially attuned via social networks, more wirelessly adapted and in many respects better educated.

Real estate professionals will certainly survive as the primary link between Americans and the American dream, but will end up with significantly different roles and value in the process. Make sure you stay in control of your destiny.

My latest annual Trends Report is due for release next week of February. And as before, it is full of information, facts and figures, new business models, changes, shifts and recommendations. Don't be left behind, get a copy and get up to speed with what's happening to our industry.

Purchase a copy at www.RealEstateBooks.org before the Report arrives next week from the publishers and save $50 off the cover price.

I hope you all enjoy the read and benefit from its contents.